SO. CAL REAL ESTATE. WHERE'S THE BOTTOM??

In circumnavigating the Southern California Real Estate blogosphere,

(I assume that is the correct term since it is a “sphere” or would “surf” be more apropos? After all, you can't “surf” a net or a web either? Let's stick with the navigation metaphor.)

I have found confirmation of our own experience of the real estate market trends and the statistics as presented by Altos Research.

Alhambra, CA has been exhibiting a lower available property inventory down, and decrease in the number of days on the market per property. The median sale price has increased.

Buena Park, CA has seen a slight positive reversal and stabilization in statistics since May 1.

Burbank, CA since May 1, has exhibited lower house prices along with decreased inventory and an increase in number of days on Market.

The Costa Mesa, CA market has shown a sharp price increase since 3rd week of April; Dom still high. Inventory low.

The coastal community of Palos Verdes Estates experienced a decrease in median sales price, high inventory of houses on the market and high number of days on the market.

Prices have increased since April in Pasadena, CA yet the days on market remain on the high side with a stable inventory of properties for sale.

As you can see, there are significant differences between communities. Although it is difficult to generalize give this kind of data, the higher cost neighborhoods like the coastal communities, tend to have more sluggish real estate markets.

Areas that have had more of a price decline over the past few months and have more entry-level properties are the ones that are stabilizing or showing signs of recovery.

As the statistics show, trends are different between communities, price ranges, and even between neighborhoods (for instance Southern Pasadena when separated from Pasadena shows a continued decline, where Pasadena as a whole shows a stabilizing trend).

Any conclusions? Well one thing that can be determined is that a market “bottom” will occur at different times and in different places. From the increases in sales, multiple offers and over-bidding going on in some of the communities that have lost the most value, the curve indicates that there is already a bottom forming. Not so in other areas.

If anyone is waiting for a bottom to occur before buying, I would recommend against it. In the first place, you can only identify the bottom once the trend has reversed and prices begin to increase. In the second place, if you get a good deal, have stable income, good financing and incentives, it won't matter in the long run if you saved an additional 10 or 15% on the purchase price. The trick is being conservative with your finances and buying what you can afford...don;t trust the lender to be the judge of that. (We've already seen what THAT leads to!)